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Tuesday, June 06, 2006

TV or not TV

Technology is moving us closer and closer to the point where television and the web are merging. It's likely that in the next five years we will see a tremendous shift in the paradigm of broadcast TV, and many cable and satellite companies may find themselves scrambling to change the structure of their companies or face extinction. In fact, the likelihood is that most of the existing cable and satellite providers will not exist in five years, at least not as we now know them.

The reason for this shift is that Internet technology has finally begun to catch up with the demands of the public. Issues with file size, compression and bandwidth are now being resolved to the point where one can log on to a television network's web site and view his favorite television series in a crisp, large picture. With compression software getting better and connection speeds getting faster, it's only a matter of time before television makes a transition that was completely unforeseen only fifteen years ago.

Video on the web has always been the Holy Grail. Since the inception of the World Wide Web in the early 90's, many have tried to come up with a viable, watchable means of broadcasting online. Almost from day one it was assumed that video online was the way to go. And one can hardly argue as in the past decade we've moved from dream to reality.

Recently ABC announced that they would begging releasing some of their programming on the ABC web site (www.abc.com). These programs would be available for free with limited commercials and could be watched at any time simply by logging on to the site. The show plays in a stylish and attractive "theater," in a large enough format that it's clearly visible. Best of all, however, the video and audio quality are extremely high. This is the dream that web surfers have coveted. Free television programming available online and maintaining the highest possible quality. Even the "limited commercials" are less intrusive and more pleasant than their television counterparts.

This is a bold move by ABC, and other networks are sure to follow as they see the success of this innovation. It could be the first step towards a completely integrated Internet/Television concept.

Rumors in the wind contend that in addition to this you may also be able to pay a monthly subscription to watch programming without commercial interruption. In fact, services such as Instant Media (www.im.com) and Vongo (www.vongo.com) already offer you high quality video downloads for a monthly subscription. It's like having commercial free cable television and all the premium channels for about $30 a month.

The future? Most like cable and satellite companies will jump on this band wagon, focusing primarily on being Internet Service Providers (ISPs). The most likely avenue for change will be in offering equipment that can both surf the web and allow you to watch your programming on your television screen. But as computer technology becomes better, cheaper and more accessible you can look for manufacturers such as HP and Gateway to get into the home entertainment market rather heavily. Expect to see "Media PCs" become the next big thing.

The trend towards broadcasting entirely online is one that is long over-due. The viewing public wants the freedom to watch programming on their schedule. They crave the flexibility of being able to pick and choose in an à la carte fashion. No more re-runs, pre-empted programming or sweeps campaigns. The public wants their shows on their terms, and we're finally seeing a movement in the right direction.

Perhaps more interesting than the offerings of established networks, however, is the fact that opening up the Internet for broadcasting will create a level playing field for even amateur producers. For the first time in history if anyone wants to try their hand at a television series they have all the means to do so. With a video camera, editing software and an internet connection anyone can become a network, thus giving the public BILLIONS of channels to choose from. And you thought nothing was on before.

The web is the largest entertainment network ever known. In the history of mankind there has never been an avenue that so readily allowed the average person to compete with an established multi-million-dollar company. It will be interesting to see what happens when the public becomes it's own provider.

J. Kevin Tumlinson is the Editor of ViewOnline Magazine (www.viewonline.com). You may contact him via e-mail at kevin@viewonline.com. He provides his own entertainment.

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